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战略几何学框架下的弱信号理论解析

Weak-signal Theoretical Analysis with the Framework of the Geometry of Strategy

摘要:目的面对建构主义学者的质疑,弱信号内涵需要更具统一性的概括,其理论边界和延伸范围也需要更加明晰地阐述。本文旨在通过系统地文献整合和理论思辨,为弱信号应用研究提供坚实的理论基础。 方法 借助战略几何学框架,融入信号哲学和设计思维等理论元素,对弱信号理论体系进行了四个层面的分析和概括。通过点解析重新界定了弱信号概念;通过线解析区分了弱信号相似和相关概念;通过角解析刻画出弱信号的四种创生类型和五条演化路径;通过三角形解析提出用于弱信号量化测度的三角度量表达式。 结果 首先,确定了以感知域、问题域、意义构建和感知者四要素为基础的弱信号内涵表述。其次,明确了弱信号与突发事件、新兴议题、趋势/大趋势、伪信号、虚假信号等概念之间的不同,以及与情报信号、预警信号之间的关联性。第三,发现了弱信号创生和演化的本质在于意义构建下的感知域和问题域互动。最后,构建出由相离度、包含度、相交度和意义构建系数等内容组成的弱信号揭示度概念和表达式。

英文摘要:PURPOSE To confront the challenges of constructivism scholars, the connotation of weak-signal needs a more unified generalization, and its theoretical boundary and extension need to become more clearly expounded either. The purpose of this paper is to present a solid theoretical basis for the study of weak-signal application through systematic literature integration and theoretical speculation. METHOD The theoretical system of weak-signal is analyzed and summarized at four levels with the framework of the geometry of strategy. Meanwhile, integrating several theoretical elements such as philosophy of signal and design thinking. The concept of weak-signal is redefined by point analysis. Similar and related concepts of weak-signal are distinguished by line analysis. Four types of creation and five evolutionary paths of weak-signal are described by angular analysis. A triangular metric expression for weak-signal quantitative measure is proposed by triangle analysis. RESULT Firstly, the connotation expression of weak-signal is identified based on four elements: perception domain, question domain, sense-making and percipient. Secondly, the differences between weak signals and wild cards, emerging issues, trends/megatrends, false signals, fake signals are clarified, as well as the correlations between weak signals and intelligence signals, warning signals. Thirdly, it is found that the essence of weak-signal creation and evolution in the interaction between perception domain and question domain under sense-making. Finally, the concept and expression of Reveal degree of weak-signal are constructed, which consists of the degree of separation, the degree of inclusion, the degree of intersection and the sense-making coefficient.

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[V2] 2022-08-02 21:19:48 chinaXiv:202208.00013V2 下载全文
[V1] 2022-08-02 16:56:24 chinaXiv:202208.00013v1 查看此版本 下载全文
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