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濒危喀斯特专性植物蚬木在中国的潜在适生区预测

Prediction of potential suitable areas for endangered karst obligate Excentrodendron tonkinensis in China

摘要:蚬木(Excentrodendron tonkinensis)是喀斯特季节性雨林建群种、喀斯特专性树种,属国家 Ⅱ级重点保护野生植物、IUCN 濒危植物,具有极高的生态经济价值。但目前对蚬木的潜在适生区在 全球变化背景下如何变动及其关键驱动因子仍缺乏了解,影响了蚬木的科学保护和利用。为此,本 研究利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)分析未来气候变化情景(SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5)下蚬木在中国的潜 在地理分布变化,并测试了喀斯特地质背景分布对喀斯特专性植物适生区预测的影响。结果表明: (1)在加入喀斯特地质背景数据的情况下,适生区预测模型的 AUC 平均值为 0.997,具有较好的预 测效果,模型预测结果严格局限于喀斯特区域,与蚬木喀斯特专性植物的特性相符;(2)根据模型 的拟合结果,喀斯特地质背景分布、最暖季降水量(800~950 mm)、最冷月最低温(7~11 ℃)为限 制蚬木分布的关键因子;(3)未来随着温度升高,蚬木潜在适生区面积在喀斯特区持续扩张,总体 上呈现出向高纬度迁移的趋势;桂西南和滇东南的部分区域存在较大面积的稳定生境。以上研究表 明,在预测蚬木等喀斯特专性植物的潜在地理分布时,必须考虑喀斯特地质背景的分布范围;如果 未来持续升温,其潜在适生区将向高纬度地区扩张,濒危程度可能受气候变化的影响不明显;桂西 南和滇东南部分区域是未来气候变化情景下蚬木保育和利用的适宜区。

英文摘要:Excentrodendron tonkinensis is a constructive species of karst seasonal rainforest and an obligate karst plant, which is also one of the national secondary key protected wild plant and an IUCN endangered plant, with high economic and ecological value. However, there is still a lack of understanding of how the potential suitable areas of Excentrodendron tonkinensis change in the context of global change and its key driving factors, which affect the scientific protection and utilization of Excentrodendron tonkinensis.To assess the impacts of climate change on the extents of the habitat of Excentrodendron tonkinensis, we used the Maximum-entropy model to analyze the potential changes in the geographical distribution in China of future climate scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), and tested the influence of the karst geological background distribution on predicting the suitable areas of karst obligate plants. The results show that: (1) in the case of adding karst geological background data, the average AUC of the prediction model for the suitable area is 0.997, which has a good prediction effect. And the model prediction results are strictly limited to the karst region, consistent with the characteristics of Excentrodendron tonkinensis which is karst obligate plant; (2) According to the fitting results of the model, the karst geological background, precipitation of warmest quarter(800-950 mm), and the min temperature of coldest month(7-11 ℃) are the key factors limiting the distribution of Excentrodendron tonkinensis; (3) with the increase of temperature in the future, the area of potential suitable areas for Excentrodendron tonkinensis would expand to higher latitudes karst areas. Large numbers of areas of stable habitats exist in parts of southwest Guangxi and southeastern Yunnan. These results suggest that the karst geological distribution is essential as predicting the potential geographic distribution of karst obligate plants such as Excentrodendron tonkinensis; if the temperature continues to rise in the future, its potential suitable areas will expand to high latitudes, and the degree of endangerment may be affected by climate, which means it is not obvious under the influence of climate changes; parts of southwestern Guangxi and southeastern Yunnan are suitable areas for the conservation and utilization of Excentrodendron tonkinensis under the climate changes in the future.

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[V1] 2022-08-05 16:38:28 chinaXiv:202208.00042V1 下载全文
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