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中国主要城市居民住房支付能力演化特征研究

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摘要: 运用房价收入比、滑动T检验和Sens斜率估计等方法,对中国27个大中城市20012019年的居民住房支付能力演化特征进行了研究,分析了城市居民住房支付能力演化特征与中国房地产调控的关联性。结果表明:(1) 中国主要城市的居民住房支付能力在研究期内总体呈较明显的减弱趋势,居民住房支付能力等级持续下降和越级下降的现象较普遍,居民住房支付能力呈加速下降演化特征的城市占比达18.52%。(2) 不同城市在居民住房支付能力等级演化特征、房价收入比演化阶段及阶段性演化趋势3个维度上存在较明显的差异性。(3) 总体而言,城市居民住房支付能力演化阶段与中国房地产调控政策做出重大调整和地方出台重要房地产调控政策的时间点存在较强关联,住房支付能力的阶段性演化趋势与中国房地产发展情况相一致。研究呼吁建立健全城市居民住房支付能力评估监测制度,及时掌握主要城市居民住房支付能力及其演化规律。坚持房住不炒和稳房价的总体定位,科学合理制定房地产调控的一揽子政策,分区、分类推进城市居民住房支付能力提升工程。

Abstract: This study examined variations in housing affordability in 27 large- and medium-sized Chinese citiesduring 20012019 with the methods of house price-to-income ratio, moving T test, and Sens slope estimator.The relationships between housing affordability variations in major cities and policies aimed at regulating the realestate market in China were also discussed. The results showed the following: (1) A decreasing trend in housingaffordability in major cities was generally present in China during 20012019. Apersisting decreaseandleapfrog decreasein housing affordability ratings were clearly observed. Moreover, anaccelerating decreasein housing affordability was observed in 18.52% of the studied cities. (2) Differences between cities in terms ofthree aspects were observed, namely the dynamics of the housing affordability ratings, the stages of variation inhouse price-to-income ratio and the corresponding trends. (3) In general, the aforementioned variation stages related to the adjustment of policies aimed at regulating the real estate market in China and the passing of importanthousing price-control measures by local authorities. Housing affordability trends were generally consistent withthe development of the real estate market in China. The study suggests a framework for assessing and monitoringhousing affordability to promote its timely estimation and provide insight into its dynamics. A package of policiesaimed at regulating the real estate market and projects aimed at improving housing affordability in cities of particular regions were also advocated, in line with thenon-speculative housingandstable housing pricestrategies.

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[V1] 2023-09-19 12:52:30 ChinaXiv:202309.00160V1 下载全文
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