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1. chinaXiv:202109.00058 [pdf]

Dating the First Case of COVID-19 Epidemic from a Probabilistic Perspective

Zhouwang Yang; Yunhe Hu; Zhiwei Ding; Tiande Guo
Subjects: Mathematics >> Applied Mathematics

In the early days of the epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), due to insufficient knowledge of the pandemic, inadequate nucleic acid tests, lack of timely data reporting, etc., the origin time of the onset of COVID-19 is difficult to determine. Therefore, source tracing is crucial for infectious disease prevention and control. The purpose of this paper is to infer the origin time of pandemic of COVID-19 based on a data and model hybrid driven method. We model the testing positive rate to fit its actual trend, and use the least squares estimation to obtain the optimal model parameters. Further, the kernel density estimation is applied to infer the origin time of pandemic given the specific confidence probability. By selecting 12 representative regions in the United States for analysis, the dates of the first infected case with 50% confidence probability are mostly between August and October 2019, which are earlier than the officially announced date of the first confirmed case in the United States on January 20, 2020. The experimental results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States starts to spread around September 2019 with a high confidence probability. In addition, the existing confirmed cases are also used in Wuhan City and Zhejiang Province in China to infer the origin time of COVID-19 and provide the confidence probability. The results show that the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in China is likely to begin in late December 2019.

submitted time 2021-09-22 Hits25015Downloads4523 Comment 0

2. chinaXiv:202105.00075 [pdf]

共情的双刃剑效应:COVID-19心理热线咨询师的继发性创伤应激和替代性创伤后成长

赖丽足; 任志洪; 颜懿菲; 牛更枫; 赵春晓; 罗梅; 张琳
Subjects: Psychology >> Clinical and Counseling Psychology

关注新型冠状病毒肺炎流行期间的心理援助热线咨询师由共情带来的消极和积极影响及机制,并探究从消极影响转变为积极成长的内在机制具有重要的理论和实践意义。本研究以国内疫情期间,776名在教育部华中师范大学心理援助热线平台上工作的咨询师(平均年龄42.57岁,平均咨询经验12.44年)为研究对象,使用问卷法测量热线心理咨询师的共情、正念、寻求意义、继发性创伤应激(Secondary Traumatic Stress, STS)和替代性创伤后成长(Vicarious Posttraumatic Growth, VPTG)。采用潜变量结构方程模型进行分析,结果发现:(1)咨询师的共情正向预测STS和VPTG;(2)正念在共情和STS间起部分中介作用,寻求意义在共情和VPTG间起部分中介作用;(3)共情还可以分别通过STS、STS—寻求意义、正念—STS、正念—STS—寻求意义的中介路径对VPTG起正向预测作用。该结果提示要辩证看待共情带来的消极和积极影响,关注从消极反应到积极成长的转变,这不仅能够深化共情及其影响的研究,还能为相关研究应用提供启示。

submitted time 2021-05-25 Hits3286Downloads678 Comment 0

3. chinaXiv:202101.00059 [pdf]

Coping With Coronavirus Pandemic: Risk Perception Predicts Life Optimism

Kailin Cheng; Jiangqun Liao
Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology

Objective: Given that the coronavirus pandemic has become a severe concern around the world, how can optimism be maintained in an outbreak of a collective epidemic? We proposed that perceived control and negative affect could be potential explanatory factors for optimism in the face of pandemic. Methods & Results: In Study 1, a large-scale (N = 599) cross-sectional design (N = 599) showed the effect of risk perception on life optimism and the serial mediating effect of “perceived control–negative affect” through structural equation modeling. Then, Study 2 (N = 191) ascertained the causality between risk perception for epidemic and life optimism with experimental manipulations. Finally, Study 3 (N = 186) controlled for extrinsic variables and further revealed that the effect of risk perception on optimism could be extended to overall subjective well-being. Conclusions: Together, these findings indicated that under influenza epidemic, risk perception could make a difference in life optimism. Moreover, perceived control and negative affect were notable contributing factors in the link. Measures strengthening the publicity and transparency of recovery rates should be taken to reduce public risk perceptions and promote life optimism.

submitted time 2021-01-15 Hits3680Downloads889 Comment 0

4. chinaXiv:202002.00017 [pdf]

自我肯定缓冲新冠疫情引发的焦虑反应:一项随机对照研究

李世峰; 吴艺玲; 张福民; 许琼英; 周爱保
Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology

当个体知觉到环境中存在威胁时,就会自动的引发个体的应激反应。而长期的应激会使个体产生一系列严重的心理和身体健康问题。大量的研究发现肯定自我价值可以缓冲由应激引发的负面情绪和身体反应。本研究通过实验的方法考察了肯定自我价值是否可以降低新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情引发的焦虑和抑郁情绪反应。220名被试被随机分配到自我价值肯定任务组或控制任务组,被试在干预前(2月2日)和一个星期后(2月9日)完成焦虑和抑郁测量。研究结果发现相对于控制组在一周后比前测时表现出更严重的焦虑情绪,自我价值肯定组在前测和一周后在焦虑情绪上没有显著的变化,这一效应在控制了性别、年龄、受教育水平和家庭年收入后仍然存在。这些结果表明简短的(约10分钟)对自我价值的反思可以帮助个体缓冲疫情引发的焦虑情绪反应。这一发现对于从社会心理的视角进行疫情防护提供了重要的科学证据。

submitted time 2020-03-27 Hits16302Downloads2377 Comment 0

5. chinaXiv:202003.00026 [pdf]

Effective Treatment of Severe COVID-19 Patients with Tocilizumab

Xu, Xiaoling; Han, Mingfeng; Li, Tiantian; Sun, Wei; Wang, Dongsheng; Fu, Binqing; Zhou, Yonggang; Zheng, Xiaohu; Yang, Yun; Li, Xiuyong; Zhang, Xiaohua; Pan, Aijun; Wei, Haiming
Subjects: Medicine, Pharmacy >> Clinical Medicine

Background: In December 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in Wuhan, China, which spread rapidly and has become a world-wide public health challenge. We aimed to assess the efficacy of tocilizumab in severe patients with Corona Virus Disease-19 (COVID-19) and seek a new therapeutic strategy. Methods: The patients diagnosed as severe or critical COVID-19 in The First Affiliated Hospital of University of Science and Technology of China (Anhui Provincial Hospital) and Anhui Fuyang Second People’s Hospital were given tocilizumab in addition to routine therapy between February 5 and February 14, 2020. The changes of clinical manifestations, CT scan image, and laboratory examinations were retrospectively analyzed. Findings: Within a few days, the fever returned to normal and all other symptoms improved remarkably. Fifteen of the 20 patients (75.0%) had lowered their oxygen intake and one patient need no oxygen therapy. CT scans manifested that the lung lesion opacity absorbed in 19 patients (90.5%). The percentage of lymphocytes in peripheral blood, which decreased in 85.0% patients (17/20) before treatment (mean, 15.52 ± 8.89%), returned to normal in 52.6% patients (10/19) on the fifth day after treatment. Abnormally elevated C-reactive protein decreased significantly in 84.2% patients (16/19). No obvious adverse reactions were observed. Nineteen patients (90.5%) have been discharged on average 13.5 days after the treatment with tocilizumab and the rest are recovering well. Interpretation: Tocilizumab is an effective treatment in severe patients of COVID-19, which provided a new therapeutic strategy for this fatal infectious disease.

submitted time 2020-03-05 Hits185838Downloads53405 Comment 0

6. chinaXiv:202003.00005 [pdf]

Psychological responses to the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) outbreak

Zheng JIN; Kaibin ZHAO; Yanyu XIA; Ruijun CHEN; Huan YU; Timothy TAMUNANG TAMUTANA1; Jeffrey SHERMAN; Christina BERMEITINGER; Pamela BAESS
Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has infected more than 90,000 people in at least 69 countries by Feb 29, 2020. Medical interest in COVID-19 has been considerable. Mental health issues that coincide with the epidemics are rarely examined. There is a strong need for public health officials to consider how psychological effects vary at each phase of a crisis and how they relate to people to better support them in these shifting states of mind. The present study examines temporal relationships among behavioral and emotional responses towards COVID-19 and attitudinal responses to crisis management. 846 adults were invited to complete a set of Internet-based questionnaires at two time points with a range of 14 to 18 days’ intervals covered by the ascending phase of the outbreak. At the baseline assessment 788 adults completed the questionnaires. At the Wave 2 survey, 318 adults from Wave 1 were retained. Results from cross-lagged models demonstrated reciprocal negative associations between anxiety and crisis management appraise. In addition, the higher evaluation of crisis management in the initial period of outbreak predicted adoption of preventive behaviors and susceptibility to emotional contagion to a greater extend in a later period. Susceptibility to emotional contagion also positively predicted preventive behaviors taken. Furthermore, multiple group structural equation modeling revealed that evaluation of crisis management is more likely to affect the susceptibility to emotional contagion of people on the frontline of the outbreak (i.e., Wuhan) compared to people living in moderate risk areas (i.e., Outside of Hubei). These data provide experimental evidence regarding mental health during the COVID-19 outbreak, and over the course of a pandemic, which will direct governments and health authorities during disease outbreaks through their attempts to communicate with the public.

submitted time 2020-03-04 Hits23074Downloads4938 Comment 0

7. chinaXiv:202003.00003 [pdf]

COVID-19 outbreak increased risk of schizophrenia in aged adults

Hu, Wei; Su, Li; Qiao, Juan; Zhu, Jing; Zhou, Yi
Subjects: Psychology >> Clinical and Counseling Psychology

We noticed an unusual increase of first-time patients with schizophrenia (F20) in January 2020 since the outbreak of COVID-19. The aim of this retrospective study is to validate this observation and find potential risk factors, if applicable. A total number of 13,783 records from outpatients in January 2020 were investigated thoroughly. Comparisons between incidence of schizophrenia in outpatients in January 2020 and similar periods of 2017-2019 were made to minimize seasonal influence. Relationship of incidence of schizophrenia and COVID-19 infections in China was calculated. Limited personal information (age, gender, approximate residence) was analyzed to find risk factors.After excluding seasonal factors such as Spring festival, a positive relationship between incidence of schizophrenia in first-time patients and countrywide epidemic situation was found. Statistical results further showed a significant increase of median age from 39 to 50 for first-time patients diagnosed with schizophrenia which is unusual. Meanwhile, a slight but not significant change was found in distribution of gender and approximate residence (urban/suburb). Our data supported that COVID-19 outbreak increased risk of schizophrenia in aged adults which is consistent with the fact that COVID-19 is more lethal to elders. We strongly appeal that public healthcare in countries either with or without infected patients should prepare in advance for potential risks in public mental health.

submitted time 2020-02-29 Hits43516Downloads6776 Comment 0

8. chinaXiv:202002.00078 [pdf]

Confirmed asymptomatic carrier of SARS-CoV-2

Luo, Sihui; Liu, Wei; Liu, Zhenjun; Zheng, Xueying; Ling, Ping; Ding, Yu; Hong, Changxing; Liu, Zhirong; Liu, Jian; Weng, Jianping
Subjects: Medicine, Pharmacy >> Clinical Medicine

Here we reported a case of asymptomatic carrier of SARS-CoV-2 infection. A 50-year old woman, lived with her husband in Anqing(Anhui, China) with no significant past medical history, travel history to Wuhan or adjacent area, or exposure to wild animals. She took throat swab test for SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid due to her husband’s close contact with patients who had SARS-CoV-2 infection. Her results were confirmed positive on February 6, 2020. But she did not report elevation of temperature measurement, nor respiratory or gastrointestinal symptoms and her chest CT scan showed no significant abnormalities. She was hospitalized on February 6 and treated with antiviral agents. During her hospitalization, apart from a mild elevation of liver enzymes after 10-day treatment of lopinavir/ritonavir, she was asymptomatic, with her blood cell count, live and renal function largely normal. Her subcutaneous oxygen saturation stayed above 97%. Chest CT scan was repeated on February 11 and 20, and both were negative for signs of viral pneumonia. Notably, a second set of throat swabs and anal swabs were sent to test for SARS-CoV-2 on February 19, and the results were still confirmed positive. This is a confirmed case of asymptomatic carrier of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Her persistent positive findings in both throat and anal swabs suggested the possibility of healthy carrier of the virus, which adds to the difficulty in preventing transmission of the disease.

submitted time 2020-02-28 Hits35079Downloads4221 Comment 0

9. chinaXiv:202002.00080 [pdf]

Transplantation of ACE2- mesenchymal stem cells improves the outcome of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia

Zikuan Leng; Rongjia Zhu; Wei Hou; Yingmei Feng; Yanlei Yang; Qin Han; Guangliang Shan; Fanyan Meng; Dongshu Du; Shihua Wang; Junfen Fan; Wenjing Wang; Luchan Deng; Hongbo Shi; Hongjun Li; Zhongjie Hu; Fengchun Zhang; Jinming Gao; Hongjian Liu; Xiaoxia Li
Subjects: Medicine, Pharmacy >> Clinical Medicine

A coronavirus (HCoV-19) has caused the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China, Preventing and reversing the cytokine storm may be the key to save the patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia. Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) have been shown to possess a comprehensive powerful immunomodulatory function. This study aims to investigate whether MSC transplantation improve the outcome of 7 enrolled patients with COVID-19 pneumonia in Beijing YouAn Hospital, China from Jan 23, 2020. to Feb 16, 2020. The clinical outcomes, as well as changes of inflammatory and immune function levels and adverse effects of 7 enrolled patients were assessed for 14 days after MSC injection. MSCs could cure or significantly improve the functional outcomes of seven patients with COVID-19 pneumonia in 14 days without observed adverse effect. The pulmonary function and symptoms of all patients with COVID-19 pneumonia were significantly improved in 2 days after MSC transplantation. Among them, two common and one severe patient were recovered and discharged in 10 days after treatment. After treatment, the peripheral lymphocytes were increased and the overactivated cytokine-secreting immune cells CXCR3 CD4 T cells, CXCR3 CD8 T cells, and CXCR3 NK cells were disappeared in 3-6 days. And a group of CD14 CD11c CD11bmid regulatory DC cell population dramatically increased. Meanwhile, the level TNF-α is significantly decreased while IL-10 increased in MSC treatment group compared to the placebo control group. Furthermore, the gene expression profile showed MSCs were ACE2- and TMPRSS2- which indicated MSCs are free from COVID-19 infection. Thus, the intravenous transplantation of MSCs was safe and effective for treatment in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia, especially for the patients in critically severe condition.

submitted time 2020-02-28 Hits42561Downloads8069 Comment 0

10. chinaXiv:202002.00084 [pdf]

Clinical remission of a critically ill COVID-19 patient treated by human umbilical cord mesenchymal stem cells

Bing Liang; Junhui Chen; Tao Li; Haiying Wu; Wenjie Yang; Yanjiao Li; Jianchun Li; Congtao Yu; Fangang Nie; Zhaoxia Ma; Mingxi Yang; Panrong Nie; Yanfeng Gao; Chuanyun Qian; Min Hu
Subjects: Medicine, Pharmacy >> Clinical Medicine

BackgroundThe COVID-19 cases increased very fast in the last two months. The mortality among critically ill patients, especially the elder ones, was relatively high. Considering that most of the dead patients were caused by severe inflammation response, it is very urgent to develop effective therapeutic agents and strategies for these patients. The human umbilical cord mesenchymal stem cells (hUCMSCs) have shown very good capability to modulate immune response and repair the injured tissue with good safety. Case PresentationHere, we reported the treatment process and clinical outcome of a 65-year-old female critically ill COVID-19 patient infected with 2019-nCoV (now called SARS-CoV-2). The significant clinical outcome and well tolerance was observed by the adoptive transfer of allogenic hUCMSCs.ConclusionsOur results suggested that the adoptive transfer therapy of hUCMSCs might be an ideal choice to be used or combined with other immune modulating agents to treat the critically ill COVID-19 patients.

submitted time 2020-02-27 Hits44536Downloads7919 Comment 0

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