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1. chinaXiv:202109.00058 [pdf]

Dating the First Case of COVID-19 Epidemic from a Probabilistic Perspective

Zhouwang Yang; Yunhe Hu; Zhiwei Ding; Tiande Guo
Subjects: Mathematics >> Applied Mathematics

In the early days of the epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), due to insufficient knowledge of the pandemic, inadequate nucleic acid tests, lack of timely data reporting, etc., the origin time of the onset of COVID-19 is difficult to determine. Therefore, source tracing is crucial for infectious disease prevention and control. The purpose of this paper is to infer the origin time of pandemic of COVID-19 based on a data and model hybrid driven method. We model the testing positive rate to fit its actual trend, and use the least squares estimation to obtain the optimal model parameters. Further, the kernel density estimation is applied to infer the origin time of pandemic given the specific confidence probability. By selecting 12 representative regions in the United States for analysis, the dates of the first infected case with 50% confidence probability are mostly between August and October 2019, which are earlier than the officially announced date of the first confirmed case in the United States on January 20, 2020. The experimental results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States starts to spread around September 2019 with a high confidence probability. In addition, the existing confirmed cases are also used in Wuhan City and Zhejiang Province in China to infer the origin time of COVID-19 and provide the confidence probability. The results show that the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in China is likely to begin in late December 2019.

submitted time 2021-09-22 Hits193Downloads30 Comment 0

2. chinaXiv:202109.00057 [pdf]

作业中断对任务绩效的影响及心理疲劳的调节作用

陈悦源; 方卫宁; 郭北苑; 鲍海峰
Subjects: Psychology >> Physiological Psychology

作业中断会对中断后行为绩效产生影响,探讨不同疲劳状态下中断对作业绩效影响的认知机制将有助于完善和发展中断的认知理论。本研究采用事件相关电位(ERP),通过在不同心理疲劳状态下执行数学题任务中断、暂停中断和不中断的空间2-back任务,结合行为数据和ERPs结果,分析作业中断对任务绩效的影响以及心理疲劳在其中的调节作用。实验结果发现,中断后诱发的P200和P300振幅显著提高,作业中断使得主任务的注意力资源下降,任务中断的无关信息干扰了主任务工作记忆,而疲劳状态则进一步加剧了中断对注意资源、工作记忆及行为绩效的负面效应。本研究在揭示作业中断认知过程及疲劳对其影响机理的同时,也支持了中断的目标记忆模型。

submitted time 2021-09-21 Hits12Downloads4 Comment 0

3. chinaXiv:202109.00056 [pdf]

接种还是不接种疫苗?一项对待不确定性“趋避冲突”的态度调查

杜思源; 戴亦馨; 李佩威; 赵宁; 李纾; 郑昱
Subjects: Psychology >> Applied Psychology

[目的] 测量民众接种新冠病毒疫苗的真实意愿与常规态度调查方法所测出来的接种意愿的差异。 [方法] 我们于2021年1月22日至27日调查了全国30个省/市/自治区(除西藏自治区)共3123人对接种新冠病毒疫苗(以下简称疫苗)的意愿。 [结果] 在我国接种疫苗的早期,民众对接种疫苗的意愿并不如预期般乐观,被调查人群中选择“现在不接种”和“观望后再决定”的人数超过了半数。 [结论] 研究者应慎重选择调查民众疫苗接种真实意愿的调查方法,建议相关部门要对民众的“接种迟疑”有充分的预判和准备。

submitted time 2021-09-21 Hits46Downloads15 Comment 0

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