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1. chinaXiv:202109.00058 [pdf]

Dating the First Case of COVID-19 Epidemic from a Probabilistic Perspective

Zhouwang Yang; Yunhe Hu; Zhiwei Ding; Tiande Guo
Subjects: Mathematics >> Applied Mathematics

In the early days of the epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), due to insufficient knowledge of the pandemic, inadequate nucleic acid tests, lack of timely data reporting, etc., the origin time of the onset of COVID-19 is difficult to determine. Therefore, source tracing is crucial for infectious disease prevention and control. The purpose of this paper is to infer the origin time of pandemic of COVID-19 based on a data and model hybrid driven method. We model the testing positive rate to fit its actual trend, and use the least squares estimation to obtain the optimal model parameters. Further, the kernel density estimation is applied to infer the origin time of pandemic given the specific confidence probability. By selecting 12 representative regions in the United States for analysis, the dates of the first infected case with 50% confidence probability are mostly between August and October 2019, which are earlier than the officially announced date of the first confirmed case in the United States on January 20, 2020. The experimental results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States starts to spread around September 2019 with a high confidence probability. In addition, the existing confirmed cases are also used in Wuhan City and Zhejiang Province in China to infer the origin time of COVID-19 and provide the confidence probability. The results show that the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in China is likely to begin in late December 2019.

submitted time 2021-09-22 Hits5897Downloads1598 Comment 0

2. chinaXiv:202109.00057 [pdf]


陈悦源; 方卫宁; 郭北苑; 鲍海峰
Subjects: Psychology >> Physiological Psychology


submitted time 2021-09-21 Hits207Downloads131 Comment 0

3. chinaXiv:202109.00056 [pdf]


杜思源; 戴亦馨; 李佩威; 赵宁; 李纾; 郑昱
Subjects: Psychology >> Applied Psychology

[目的] 测量民众接种新冠病毒疫苗的真实意愿与常规态度调查方法所测出来的接种意愿的差异。 [方法] 我们于2021年1月22日至27日调查了全国30个省/市/自治区(除西藏自治区)共3123人对接种新冠病毒疫苗(以下简称疫苗)的意愿。 [结果] 在我国接种疫苗的早期,民众对接种疫苗的意愿并不如预期般乐观,被调查人群中选择“现在不接种”和“观望后再决定”的人数超过了半数。 [结论] 研究者应慎重选择调查民众疫苗接种真实意愿的调查方法,建议相关部门要对民众的“接种迟疑”有充分的预判和准备。

submitted time 2021-09-21 Hits177Downloads66 Comment 0

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