An integrated assessment of the potential of agricultural and forestry residues for energy production in China

分类： 生物学 >> 植物学 >> 植物生态学和植物地理学 提交时间： 2016-05-04

Ji Gao Aiping Zhang Shu Kee Lam Xuesong Zhang Allison M. Thomson Erda Lin Kejun Jiang Leon E. Clarke James A. Edmonds Page G. Kyle Sha Yu Yuyu Zhou Sheng Zhou

摘要： Biomass has been widely recognized as an important energy source with high potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while minimizing environmental pollution. In this study, we employ the Global Change Assessment Model to estimate the potential of agricultural and forestry residue biomass for energy production in China. Potential availability of residue biomass as an energy source was analyzed for the 21st century under different climate policy scenarios. Currently, the amount of total annual residue biomass, averaged over 20032007, is around 15519PJ in China, consisting of 10818PJ from agriculture residues (70%) and 4701PJ forestry residues (30%). We estimate that 12693PJ of the total biomass is available for energy production, with 66% derived from agricultural residue and 34% from forestry residue. Most of the available residue is from south central China (3347PJ), east China (2862PJ) and south-west China (2229PJ), which combined exceeds 66% of the total national biomass. Under the reference scenario without carbon tax, the potential availability of residue biomass for energy production is projected to be 3380PJ by 2050 and 4108PJ by 2095, respectively. When carbon tax is imposed, biomass availability increases substantially. For the CCS 450ppm scenario, availability of biomass increases to 9002PJ (2050) and 11524PJ (2095), respectively. For the 450ppm scenario without CCS, 9183 (2050) and 11150PJ (2095) residue biomass, respectively, is projected to be available. Moreover, the implementation of CCS will have a little impact on the supply of residue biomass after 2035. Our results suggest that residue biomass has the potential to be an important component in China's sustainable energy production portfolio. As a low carbon emission energy source, climate change policies that involve carbon tariff and CCS technology promote the use of residue biomass for energy production in a low carbon-constrained world.

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