Abstract: Hydrothermal condition is mismatched in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly in Central Asia (including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan), resulting many environmental limitations. In this study, we projected hydrothermal condition in Central Asia based on bias-corrected multi-model ensembles (MMEs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios (SSP126 (SSP1-RCP2.6), SSP245 (SSP2-RCP4.5), SSP460 (SSP4-RCP6.0), and SSP585 (SSP5-RCP8.5)) during 2015–2100. The bias correction and spatial disaggregation, water-thermal product index, and sensitivity analysis were used in this study. The results showed that the hydrothermal condition is mismatched in the central and southern deserts, whereas the region of Pamir Mountains and Tianshan Mountains as well as the northern plains of Kazakhstan showed a matched hydrothermal condition. Compared with the historical period, the matched degree of hydrothermal condition improves during 2046–2075, but degenerates during 2015–2044 and 2076–2100. The change of hydrothermal condition is sensitive to precipitation in the northern regions and the maximum temperatures in the southern regions. The result suggests that the optimal scenario in Central Asia is SSP126 scenario, while SSP585 scenario brings further hydrothermal contradictions. This study provides scientific information for the development and sustainable utilization of hydrothermal resources in arid and semi-arid regions under climate change.
摘要：Snow avalanches are a common natural hazard in many countries with seasonally snow-covered mountains. The avalanche hazard varies with snow avalanche type in different snow climate regions and at different times. The ability to understand the characteristics of avalanche activity and hazards of different snow avalanche types is a prerequisite for improving avalanche disaster management in the mid-altitude region of the Central Tianshan Mountains. In this study, we collected data related to avalanche, snowpack, and meteorology during four snow seasons (from 2015 to 2019), and analysed the characteristics and hazards of different types of avalanches. The snow climate of the mid-altitude region of the Central Tianshan Mountains was examined using a snow climate classification scheme, and the results showed that the mountain range has a continental snow climate. To quantify the hazards of different types of avalanches and describe their situation over time in the continental snow climate region, this study used the avalanche hazard degree to assess the hazards of four types of avalanches, i.e., full-depth dry snow avalanches, full-depth wet snow avalanches, surface-layer dry snow avalanches, and surface-layer wet snow avalanches. The results indicated that surface-layer dry snow avalanches were characterized by large sizes and high release frequencies, which made them having the highest avalanche hazard degree in the Central Tianshan Mountains with a continental snow climate. The overall avalanche hazard showed a single peak pattern over time during the snow season, and the greatest hazard occurred in the second half of February when the snowpack was deep and the temperature increased. This study can help the disaster and emergency management departments rationally arrange avalanche relief resources and develop avalanche prevention strategies.
摘要：Playing an important role in global warming and plant growth, relative humidity (RH) has profound impacts on production and living, and can be used as an integrated indicator for evaluating the wet-dry conditions in the arid and semi-arid area. However, information on the spatial-temporal variation and the influencing factors of RH in these regions is still limited. This study attempted to use daily meteorological data during 1966–2017 to reveal the spatial-temporal characteristics of RH in the arid region of Northwest China through rotated empirical orthogonal function and statistical analysis method, and the path analysis was used to clarify the impact of temperature (T), precipitation (P), actual evapotranspiration (ETa), wind speed (W) and sunshine duration (S) on RH. The results demonstrated that climatic conditions in North Xinjiang (NXJ) was more humid than those in Hexi Corridor (HXC) and South Xinjiang (SXJ). RH had a less significant downtrend in NXJ than that in HXC, but an increasingly rising trend was observed in SXJ during the last five decades, implying that HXC and NXJ were under the process of droughts, while SXJ was getting wetter. There was a turning point for the trend of RH in Xinjiang, which occurred in 2000. Path analysis indicated that RH was negatively correlated to T, ETa, W and S, but it increased with increase of P. S, T and W had the greatest direct effects on RH in HXC, NXJ and SXJ, respectively. ETa was the factor which had the greatest indirect effect on RH in HXC and NXJ, while T was the dominant factor in SXJ.