Subjects: Geosciences >> Geography submitted time 2024-04-29 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract： This study is based on the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs model, which quantifies the supply and demand of ecosystem services. This model uses root-mean-square deviation to quantify the intensity of tradeoffs in ecosystem services and analyze the driving factors of tradeoff intensity using a structural equation model. Results show that from 2000 to 2020, the tradeoff intensity of water yield (WY) and soil conservation (SC), as well as WY and carbon sequestration (CS) supply, increased. However, the demand coordination intensity of WY and SC services, as well as WY and CS services, decreased. Except for WY services, which had a supply–demand tradeoff intensity greater than 0 in 2020, the supply–demand tradeoff intensity for WY, SC, and CS services was less than zero from 2000 to 2020. The tradeoff and synergy of ecosystem services are primarily influenced by natural factors. Evapotranspiration has a positive effect on the tradeoff between water production and SC services, as well as on the tradeoff between supply and demand for water production and CS services. However, it has a restraining effect on the tradeoff between supply and demand for water production services. The proportion of grassland area has a restraining effect on the tradeoff between water production and CS services, as well as on the synergy between water production and SC service demands. In addition, it has a promoting effect on the supply–demand tradeoff of CS services. Precipitation has a restraining effect on the synergy between water production and CS service demands, as well as on the tradeoff between supply and demand for SC services. However, it has a promoting effect on the tradeoff between supply and demand for water production services. Socioeconomic factors have a secondary effect on the tradeoff and synergy of ecosystem services. Population density has a promoting effect on the synergy between water production and soil conservation service demands, whereas it has a restraining effect on the tradeoff between supply and demand for water production services and CS services. Therefore, when developing comprehensive management decisions for river basins, the spatial characteristics and driving factors that contribute to the tradeoff and synergy of ecosystem services must be considered.
Subjects: Geosciences >> Geography submitted time 2025-07-06 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区地理》
Abstract：黄河流域山西段是我国重要的生态屏障区，预测未来生态系统服务权衡和协同态势对于生态系统优化管理十分重要。基于此，采用系统动力学、斑块级土地利用变化模拟模型（PLUS）以及均方根偏差分析2030年自然发展、经济发展、生态保护、综合发展和碳达峰情景下生态系统服务（产水、土壤保持和固碳服务）供给量和需求量及权衡/协同关系。结果表明：（1）经济发展情景下产水服务供给量最高为73.27 mm，生态保护情景下产水和固碳服务需求量最低，分别为59.89 mm和14.92 t C·hm-2。（2）生态保护情景下产水与土壤保持、产水与固碳服务供给权衡度最低，生态保护情景下产水与土壤保持、产水与固碳服务需求量协同强度均较低。（3）生态保护和碳达峰情景下产水服务与固碳服务供需比均大于0，各情景下土壤保持服务供需比相似。因此，黄河流域山西段未来发展中应优化土地利用方式，统筹生态安全和经济社会发展，完成“碳达峰”，为实现“碳中和”目标奠定基础。
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