Conservation status and prediction analysis of potential distribution of National Key Protected Wild Plants

Subjects: Biology >> Botany submitted time 2023-01-30 Cooperative journals: 《广西植物》

YU Jianghong QIN Fei XUE Tiantian ZHANG Wendi LIU Qin AN Mingtai YU Shengxiang

Abstract：

Wild plants are an important part of the natural ecological system, and China is one of the countries with the most abundant wild plant species. It is of great significance to study the distribution characteristics, protection status and of potential distribution areas of National Key Protected Wild Plants for supporting and formulating biodiversity conservation strategies. In this study, we built an occurrence database containing 1 032 species (belonging to 315 genera, 129 families) of National Key Protected Wild Plants, then used the top 5% richness algorithm to identify hotspots and evaluate the conservation effectiveness and gaps of current nature reserves. Furthermore, we used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the potential distribution and range shifts of National Key Protected Wild Plants. The results were as follows: (1) The areas with the highest species richness of the National Key Protected Wild Plants mainly confined to south and southwest of China, especially central Sichuan, southern and southeastern Yunnan, northern Guangxi, northern Guangdong and Hainan. (2) The conservation effectiveness of hotspot grid cells showed that 171 (85.50 %) hotspots are efficient protection (including 80.5 % of total species) and 29 hotspots (14.50 %) are not effectively protected (including 51.2 % of total species). (3) By comparing the potential distribution of National Key Protected Wild Plants under current and future climate scenarios, we found that potential distribution would expand to southeast of Xizang, southwestern Guangxi, southern Guangdong, and southern Fujian in the future, while those around Sichuan Basin, southern Yunnan and southern Guizhou would shrink. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the dynamic monitoring of biodiversity and pay continuous attention to the impact of climate change on National Key Protected Wild Plants in the region. Based on the analysis results of hotspot grids, conservation effectiveness and potential distribution areas identified in this study, strong data support and reference can be provided for the identification of national priority protected areas for National Key Protected Wild Plants diversity and the formulation of conservation policies.

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