Subjects: Geosciences >> Atmospheric Sciences submitted time 2023-08-25 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract： The prediction performance of four seasonal prediction model systems (BCC_CSM 1.1,ECMWF_System 5, CFSv 2, and TCC_MRI-CGCM 3) was evaluated from a deterministic perspective. Focusingon the spatial distribution and temporal variation of precipitation climatology in early winter, BCC_CSM 1.1exhibited the best prediction performance among the models. Additionally, TCC_MRI-CGCM 3 performed wellin capturing the interannual variability of precipitation, followed by BCC_CSM 1.1. All models effectivelysimulated regional-uniform precipitation, with BCC_CSM 1.1 exhibiting the highest time correlation coefficientand TCC_MRI- CGCM 3 showing the highest pattern correlation coefficient. Although all models couldreproduce the north-south reverse mode, BCC_CSM 1.1 outperformed the other models in terms of reproducingthe spatial pattern and interannual variation, given the model’s strong prediction capability for the Eurasian (EU)teleconnection pattern and western Pacific subtropical high, as well as accurate simulations of the physicalprocesses of El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) that impact early winterTibetan Plateau precipitation.
Subjects: Geosciences >> Atmospheric Sciences submitted time 2023-02-02 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区地理》
Abstract：基于Shuttleworth-Wallace Hu（SWH）双源蒸散模型对青藏高原那曲、纳木错、藏东南站蒸散发进行估算，在结果验证良好基础上，对青藏高原蒸散发变化特征及各站主要影响因素进行了分析。结果表明：SWH模型在青藏高原3个草甸站适用性良好；年蒸散发介于388~732 mm之间，年内分布呈先增大后减小特征；3站蒸散发组分差异较大，那曲站和纳木错站土壤蒸发对蒸散总量的贡献分别为53%和56%，藏东南站蒸散发则几乎全部由植被蒸腾贡献，占比高达95%；植被叶面积指数为3站蒸散发最主要的影响因素，饱和水汽压差对藏东南站蒸散发影响也较大。研究结果可对青藏高原蒸散发及其组分时空格局与水循环过程研究提供科学依据。
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Resource Sciences >> Basic Disciplines of Environmental Science and Technology submitted time 2017-09-20 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract：西风与印度季风两大环流是控制青藏高原气候与环境变化的决定性因素。研究显示两大环流的影响范围和程度具有明显的空间分异：基于降水稳定同位素实测与模型模拟发现青藏高原现代西风与印度季风的相互作用特征表现为3种模态，即印度季风模态、西风模态和过渡模态。基于湖泊沉积记录的分析，发现3种模态主控范围在历史时期不断发生变化。3种模态对现代青藏高原环境产生连锁式环境效应，使得该区的冰川、湖泊、生态系统变化具有明显的区域特征，具体表现为印度季风模态的冰川强烈退缩，湖泊趋于萎缩；西风模态的冰川趋于稳定甚至部分出现前进，湖泊趋于扩张；过渡模态的冰川退缩程度减弱，湖泊变化不明显。西风模态的植被返青期提前，印度季风模态的植被返青期推后，而过渡模态的植被过程比较复杂。
Subjects: Geosciences >> Geography submitted time 2025-07-14 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract： Based on the 2022 daily precipitation data from weather stations in the eastern Tibetan Plateau, thisstudy evaluated the accuracy of three datasets from the China Meteorological Administration: the Multi- source Precipitation Analysis System (CMPAS); Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS); and Global Atmospheric Reanalysis (CRA)—via error indices and grading methods. The results indicate: (1) CMPAS exhibits the lowest error and highest correlation, making it the most reliable for annual precipitation analysis. (2) CMPAS monthly data align closely with observations, while CRA overestimates and CLDAS underestimates precipitation in most months. (3) During two large- scale precipitation events, CLDAS best captures accumulated rainfall, while CMPAS more accurately reflects precipitation centers, intensities, timing, and location. Overall, CMPAS is the most effective dataset for analyzing precipitation in the region, supporting improved monitoring of sparse areas and laying a solid foundation for climate operations and disaster prevention.
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： Snow cover over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is a key element of Asian Water Tower. It is also an important indicator of weather and climate change. Its spatio-temporal changes can influence the regional climate and ecosystem. In this study, the spatiotemporal distribution and trends of snow cover were analyzed based on remote sensing data, and its hydrological and climate effects were also explored. The results show the followings: (1) Snow cover was dominantly distributed in mountainous areas, and the largest snow depth and Snow Cover Days (SCD) were found in the Dangla and Nianqing Dangla Mountains, with the average SCD of over 120 days, and annual average snow depth of over 10 cm; whilst there was few snow cover in the plain area and Qaidam Basin, e.g. ephemeral snow cover, with average SCD of less than 15 day and annual snow depth of less than 1 cm. (2) Snow cover days and depth were decreased in the period of 1980–2018, especially after the year of 2000. (3) There was large radiative forcing in the mountainous areas with deep snow and large SCD, and the maximum value beyond 15 W m−2; thus, the snow cover over QTP plays important feedbacks to the climate system. (4) The QTP is the source of runoff in headwater regions of many rivers, and snow melt water contributed to the soil moisture and river runoff in spring. (5) The frequency of snow disaster was increased by extreme weather events, and early warning system and protective measures should be enhanced to minimize the loss caused by snow disaster.
Subjects: Geosciences >> Geography submitted time 2019-09-02 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract： 青藏高原是全球地理环境最为特殊的区域之一，研究全新世以来青藏高原文化遗址时空演变及其原因，对于理解极端环境下的人类响应与适应具有重要意义。基于ArcGIS空间分析，运用核密度估计、平均最邻近指数和全局空间自相关等地理统计方法，研究了全新世以来青藏高原14 339处文化遗址的时空演变。结果表明：各时期遗址最近邻指数均小于1，全局Moran’s I的取值介于0~1之间，遗址存在正的空间自相关，且属于集聚分布的模式；遗址分布重心经历了由高原腹地（旧石器时期）—东南边缘谷地（新石器时期）—东部地域（青铜器时期以来）的转变；遗址分布形态特征则经历了均匀广布型（旧石器时期）、边缘河谷型（新石器时期）、河谷集聚型（青铜器时期）、退化分散型（吐蕃部落时期）、半月广布型（吐蕃王朝时期）、斑块广布型（元代）、连片集聚型（明清时期）的变化过程；青藏高原各时期遗址时空分布演变是海拔、气候变化、植被等自然环境，以及生产方式、技术、战争、人口迁移、政治政策等社会经济因素共同作用的结果。
Subjects: Agriculture, Forestry,Livestock & Aquatic Products Science >> Plant Protection submitted time 2018-07-18 Cooperative journals: 《广西植物》
Abstract： Open-top chambers (OTCs) is one of the main methods to study the relationship between global climate change and terrestrial ecosystem and has been widely used in the Tibetan plateau. Recent advancement in research on the responses of grassland ecosystems to climate warming by using OTCs is reviewed, which covers the areas of plant phenology, community structure biomass, and soil characteristics. The results show that warming extended the growth season was due to advanced the timings of green-up and delayed yellow period. Warming would benefit the growth of gramineous plants. Warming made the biomass allocation transferred to the deeper soil layer to adjust the drying conditions. The response of the alpine grassland ecosystems to climate change is uncertain, which is influenced by region, community type and experimental time. The change of soil moisture caused by rainfall and permafrost melts regulated the response of ecosystem to warming by regulating the temperature sensitivity of phenology, NPP and soil under warming. Based on the discussions, several aspects of future research should be put forward.
Subjects: Mine Engineering Technology >> Mine Geology submitted time 2025-07-17
Abstract：在全球气候变暖背景下，中低纬度冻土区退化显著加剧，导致热喀斯特地貌（如溯源热融滑塌，RTS）广泛发育。这些主要由富冰冻土融化形成的地貌，已被证实对地形、水文及生态系统动态变化具有显著影响。然而，中低纬度冻土区RTS的分布与发育时空规律仍缺乏系统研究。本研究基于多时相PlanetScope影像、Google Earth历史影像及2014–2023年Sentinel-1干涉合成孔径雷达（InSAR）数据，对祁连山西段河深岭地区RTS的时空动态进行了系统分析。结果表明：研究区共识别出20处RTS，平均面积为3.7ha，集中分布于海拔3455–3651m、坡度7–23°的斜坡带。RTS的变形速率介于-54–27 mm/y之间，通过对地表形变的分析，将其划分为发展期、稳定期和成熟期三个发展阶段，发展期RTS表现为加速的滑塌溯源发展和碎屑舌部扩张，部分滑塌体扩张幅度可达35%。高温和降水作为促进RTS在干旱高寒山地环境中加速发育的潜在因素，其活动性可能会随着气候的持续变化而增强。
Peer Review Status:
Awaiting Review
Subjects: Astronomy submitted time 2024-07-03 Cooperative journals: 《天文学进展》
YANG Chen
DENG Li-cai
YANG Fan
HE Fei
WANG Kun
LI Rui-yue
LAN Tian
REN An-bing
LIU Nian
ZHANG Chun-guang
CHEN Xiao-dian
LIU Qi-li
Abstract： The challenge faced by the field of astronomy in China had always been the the Pamir Plateau in Xinjiang). In 2016, a specific site selection for a large telescope (10 meter class) was started, with a focus on three locations on the Plateau. Although not listed as a candidate site, a survey in Lenghu area for an optical site was also driven by this plan. Lenghu is situated along the northern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Early systematic scientific surveys conducted on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in last century indicated that the region has ample sunlight, dry weather, very low percipitation, and clear night skies. The disadvantage is the wind and sand from the Qaidam Basin. Since 2018, continuous targeted monitoring of the Lenghu site has been carried out, and continuous monitoring data of the site quality parameters under extreme seeing conditions have been obtained. The data shows that on the summit of Saishiten mountain in Lenghu has excellent quality, which can meet the needs of various domestic research institutions for the construction of large optical equip#2;ments. Additionally, the geographical location in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region fills a significant gap in the distribution of high-quality international sites in terms of geographical longitude. Lenghu site provides a major opportunity for China to conduct research on time#2;domain scientific issues and engage in international campaigns. Based on the actual results of the selection and construction of the Lenghu site, this article summarizes the experience and main scientific results of the Lenghu site and introduces the optical telescope projects that have been put into operation and have signed agreements to be settled in Lenghu. lack of high-quality optical observation sites. With the development of the economy and the improvement of people’s livelihood, the optical astronomical sites established in the early stages in the developed eastern regions of the country can hardly support the current de#2;mands of astronomical development, making this challenge increasingly severe. One of the scientific issues in planning and constructing large scientific facilities during the 13th Nation#2;al Five-Year Plan period is the selection of sites. At the beginning of the new millennium, the astronomical community in China began a strategic nationwide survey of optical astro#2;nomical sites in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region (including the western Sichuan region and
Subjects: Geosciences >> Other Disciplines of Geosciences submitted time 2019-09-11 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract：研究参考蒸散时空变化格局并辨识其驱动因子，是认识区域水文过程及其对气候变化响应的重要途径。基于修正的FAO 56 Penman-Monteith公式和青藏高原75个台站逐日气象观测资料，分析了1971—2014年高原参考蒸散变化的转折特征，并探讨转折前后的年际与季节变化趋势及其主导因素。结果表明：1971—1996年青藏高原参考蒸散呈急剧下降态势〔-27.07 mm·(10a)-1〕，而1997—2014年高原参考蒸散增加趋势显著〔40.16 mm·(10a) -1〕，尤以3oN以南区域最为突出。这与影响参考蒸散变化的气候因子变化趋势的年际转折密切相关。其中，风速变小是1971—1996年高原年参考蒸散减少的主要因素，特别是在高原北部；相对湿度降低则极大地促进了1997—2014年高原主体(除高原北缘外)参考蒸散的显著增加。此外，从季节上看，春、秋、冬季参考蒸散变化的最大贡献因子由之前的风速减小转变为1997—2014年的相对湿度下降；影响高原夏季参考蒸散的主导因子是1971—1996年相对湿度的增加，之后则转变为1997—2014年日照时数的增加。
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： The “Asian Water Tower (AWT)” is an important water source for downstream Asian countries. The cascading impacts on water resources caused by changes of the AWT are closely associated with the water security for billions of people downstream. The changes of the AWT plays a key role in achieving the sustainable development goals in the downstream regions set by the United Nation General Assembly. In the context of global change, the intensity of water resources development and utilization in downstream rivers has continuously increased, and water resource issues have risen in prominence. The changes of the AWT have brought new challenges to water management in the downstream regions. Environmental changes of the AWT have caused extreme events such as the abrupt changes of discharge from the AWT and glacial lake outbursts, resulted in water supply and floods risks in downstream river basins, affected water supply, flood control, and water environment in the downstream regions. By analyzing the impact of changes of the AWT on the downstream systems and the related research gap, suggestions are made to strengthen integrated study of environmental change of the AWT and water security in the downstream, to advance integrated watershed modeling techniques for the whole basins, and to explore the linkages between the upstream alpine area and downstream water systems. There is an urgent need to understand the cascading impacts of the AWT change on downstream water systems, and to cope with the impacts of the AWT change.
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： The Tibetan Plateau is the source zone of major rivers, which provide water resources for more than 2 billion people downstream. Compared with runoff, riverine sediment load is considered as a more sensitive variable in response to climate and land surface process changes, and also as an important index to quantify regional land degradation and soil resource changes. In this study, 8 major rivers originated in the Tibetan Plateau, including Yerqiang River, Shule River, Heihe River, Yarlung Tsangpo River, Nujiang River, Yellow River, Yangtze River, and Lancang River, were selected to study the variation of sediment load in the source zone or upper reaches. Firstly, the general amount and spatial variation of runoff and sediment load of these rivers were explored. Secondly, the changes of riverine sediment load in recent decades (1960–2017) were analyzed, with the spatial and temporal variations of sediment load compared to climate (temperature, precipitation) and land surface process (glacier, frozen soil, vegetation cover) factors. Thirdly, the uncertainty of sediment load variation associated with interaction of multi-factors was discussed. Finally, the significant impacts of sediment load variation on the ecological environment and the safety of hydropower projects was pointed out with typical cases. Nowadays, the scarcity of hydrometeorological data is a major challenge to understand the variation of riverine sediment load from the Tibetan Plateau and assess the impacts. It is urgent to strengthen observation and modeling studies to reveal the complex mechanism of sediment transport changes, so as to provide scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of water and soil resources on the Tibetan Plateau and the downstream water resources management, so as to serve the national ecological security.
Subjects: Geosciences >> Hydrology submitted time 2022-06-02 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract：利用19792017年青藏高原131个气象台站实测降水资料，分别从年、季尺度对CRU、ERA5和CMFD 3种再分析降水资料在青藏高原的适用性进行了评估。结果表明：（1）CRU、ERA5、CMFD 3种数据对青藏高原年降水的模拟能力都很强，与观测值的相关系数均超过了0.9，较观测降水量值均偏大；CRU和CMFD的春季降水较为接近观测值，CMFD 夏、秋季降水与观测值最接近，3 种数据对冬季降水模拟能力均较弱。（2）从降水量分布来看，CMFD数据对青藏高原年、春季、夏季、冬季降水的分布模拟能力最好，3种数据对青藏高原秋季降水的模拟能力具有区域差异性，CRU、CMFD在青藏高原西部的降水与观测值较为接近。（3）从变化趋势来看，青藏高原年、春季、夏季、秋季降水均呈增加趋势，其中夏季增加幅度较大，冬季降水整体呈减少趋势。（4）CRU数据对青藏高原年、春季、夏季、秋季降水的变化趋势与观测值较为一致，其次为ERA5，ERA5冬季降水与观测值较为一致。（5）从偏差分析来看，CMFD数据与观测值的年、季降水偏差最小，最接近观测值。（6）3种数据与站点平均的年、季降水的时间变化序列表明，CMFD的年、春季、夏季、秋季降水与观测值的变化最为接近，其次为CRU；CMFD冬季降水较观测值最为接近，但相关系数未通过95%的显著性检验。
Subjects: Geosciences >> Geography submitted time 2021-09-14 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract：地理探测器是研究地理现象的空间分异性，并且定量分析其驱动因子的一种统计方法。利用地理探测器方法对青藏高原24个站点的降水δ18O年均值进行了分析，该方法可在一定程度上反映青藏高原降水δ18O年均值的空间分异性，得出纬度、海拔、经度和降水量对青藏高原降水δ18O年均值空间分异的解释力分别为0.82、0.71、0.57和0.49，温度对青藏高原降水δ18O年均值空间分异的解释力不显著；因子之间的共同作用增强了降水δ18O年均值在空间上的分异性。讨论了青藏高原站点降水δ18O年均值与纬度、经度、海拔、年降水量和年均温之间的关系，并对降水δ18O主控因子的季节变化进行分析，得出纬度对青藏高原降水δ18O年均值、夏季均值和冬季均值空间分异的解释力均为最强。
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Resource Sciences >> Other Disciplines of Environmental Sciences, Resource Sciences submitted time 2021-03-02 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract：利用53个气象观测站1961—2017年5—9月逐日降水资料，分析了青藏高原东北部雨季降水量的变化特征，以及不同等级降水变化在降水量增量中的相对贡献。结果表明：1961—2017年青藏高原东北部干旱区雨季降水量呈增加趋势，半干旱区和半湿润区降水量的极端性增强。大部分地区的降水强度普遍增加。进一步分析可知，青藏高原东北部雨季降水量变化主要由降水强度的变化引起，同时中雨等级降水增加贡献大于其他等级降水。半湿润区和半干旱区东部降水极端化趋势明显增强。该结果有助于进一步理解和认识青藏高原东北部生态环境变化的气候效应。
Subjects: Geosciences >> Geography submitted time 2020-11-24 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区地理》
Abstract： 青藏高原是全球气候变化最敏感的地区之一。计算青藏高原生态系统净初级生产力(Net Primary Productivity, NPP)对精确估算全球碳循环具有重要意义。基于CEVSA模型，利用M-K趋势检验法、Sen’s斜率估计法及Pearson相关系数法，分析了2000—2014年青藏高原生态系统的净初级生产力时空变化特征。结果表明：（1） 青藏高原高寒生态系统净初级生产力在空间分布上表现出由东南向西北减小的趋势，在东部及东南部的森林区〖WTBX〗NPP〖WTBZ〗在600~1 200 gC•m-2•a-1之间，中部草原和草甸区NPP在200~400 gC•m-2•a-1之间，西部和北部荒漠区，受水热条件的限制PP很小，该趋势与水热分布趋势基本一致。（2） NPP年际变化与多年平均气温呈正相关，与降水量呈负相关。NPP与气温呈正相关的地区面积占研究区总面积的82.24%，与降水量呈负相关的地区面积占49.31%，表明气温是影响植被NPP空间分布的主要因子。（3） 近15 a来，青藏高原 NPP整体呈增加趋势，与气温趋势变化一致，降水量表现出微弱的减少趋势，气温的增加伴随降水量的减少是青藏高原NPP缓慢增加的主要原因。因此，准确描述NPP对气候变化响应的能力将使我们能够深入理解陆地生态系统应对全球变化做出的反应。
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Resource Sciences >> Environmentology submitted time 2017-09-20 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract：青藏高原对我国、亚洲甚至北半球的人类生存环境和可持续发展起着重要的环境和生态屏障作用。以青藏高原为核心的第三极以及受其影响的东亚、南亚、中亚、西亚、中东欧等泛第三极地区，面积约2 000多万平方公里，涵盖20多个国家的30多亿人口，是“一带一路”的核心地带和全球人口分布最密集区。随着“一带一路”重大倡议的推进，泛第三极环境变化的重要性受到全球关注。泛第三极地区已经出现重大资源环境问题，如何保护这一地区资源环境的可持续性是“一带一路”建设实施面临的重大挑战。实施“泛第三极环境变化与绿色丝绸之路建设”专项，将从区域甚至全球尺度深入研究这一地区的资源环境科学问题，前瞻、科学地提出区域可持续发展协同应对战略，为“守护好世界上最后一方净土”和“一带一路”建设服务。
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the source of major Asian rivers such as the Yangtze River, the Yellow River, and the Yarlung Zangbo River, which is known as Asia’s water tower. Analysis on the evolution rule and variation trend of surface water and groundwater resources in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is of great strategic and scientific importance to the water resources, water ecological protection, and future regional development of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Based on the analysis of the observed runoff series of hydrological stations in the main rivers within source areas, it is found that the surface runoffs in most areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau show an increasing trend impacted by climate change in terms of more precipitation and rising temperature, and indicates significant changes in seasonal processes. The runoffs increase more significantly in the source areas of the Yangtze, Nujiang, and Yarlung Zangbo rivers. The results demonstrate that the dominant factor is increased glacier and snow melting flow to more groundwater and growth of plateau lakes, due to temperature rising. With the depletion of glacier and snowpack, the melting water will be reduced in future. Therefore, the break point of increase to decrease will arise in some river runoffs. Thus, the water security of this region will face new problems and challenges. High attention should be paid to the global change impact to water resources evolution in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and positive responsive measures should be taken.
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Resource Sciences >> Basic Disciplines of Environmental Science and Technology submitted time 2020-07-15 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract：高寒草甸生态系统对气候变化响应极为敏感，其中土壤C、N、P化学计量特征能更深刻地反映生态系统变化的过程。本文在青藏高原北麓河地区采用红外线辐射器对高寒草甸进行了8 a的模拟增温试验，于每年9月初采集试验区土壤样品，测定土壤有机碳（SOC）、全氮（TN）、全磷（TP）含量，从短期增温（3 a）和长期增温（8 a）两个时间尺度分析其化学计量特征，以探究模拟增温对高寒草甸土壤养分的影响。结果表明：（1）增温显著提高了0 cm和5 cm的土层温度（P＜0.05），增温效果随土层深度增加而减弱，空气温度变化仅在短期增温下达到显著水平（P＜0.05）。（2）从总土层来看，短期增温下C、N、P含量分别减小1.53%、0.25%、2.59%，C:P和N:P分别增大2.10%和3.18%（P＞0.05）；长期增温下C、N含量分别增加1.89%、2.68%，P含量减小2.81%，C:P和N:P分别增大6.02%和6.12%（P＞0.05）。因此，长期增温下C、N、P化学计量特征的变化幅度大于短期增温。（3）从各土层的C、N、P含量来看，短期增温下0~20 cm土层各元素含量呈减小趋势，20~30 cm土层各元素含量均呈增加趋势，表明短期增温下C、N、P有向下层转移的趋势；长期增温下0~30 cm各土层C、N含量总体呈增加趋势，P含量呈减小趋势，但20~30 cm土层各元素增幅较短期增温减小，表明长期增温下C、N、P向下层转移的趋势有所减弱。（4）从各土层的化学计量比来看，短期增温下0~20 cm土层C:P和N:P整体呈减小趋势，20~30 cm土层呈增加趋势，长期增温下各土层C:P和N:P均呈增加趋势。由此可见，随增温时间的延长，总土层C、N、P及其化学计量比变化幅度增大，但在不同土层变化趋势不一致，C、N、P总体呈现出向下层转移的趋势。
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Resource Sciences >> Basic Disciplines of Environmental Science and Technology submitted time 2019-03-07 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区地理》
Abstract：利用青藏高原东北部68个国家气象站的气象资料，统计了1961—2015年的全区月、季、年冷空气次数、强度和强降温综合强度资料，应用气候诊断方法分析了冷空气次数、强度和强降温综合强度的变化特征及其成因。结果表明：在年尺度上，1961—2015年青藏高原东北部全区冷空气年平均出现次数为49.6次，冷空气次数气候变化倾向率每10 a减少0.600次，减少趋势不显著；全区冷空气年平均强度为0.39，气候变化倾向率每10 a降低0.022，减弱趋势显著；全区冷空气年强降温综合平均强度为0.67，气候变化倾向率每10 a降低0.005，减弱趋势不显著。在季节尺度上，冷空气次数夏季减少的趋势显著，而春季减少的趋势和秋季、冬季增加的趋势不显著；冷空气强度冬季减弱的趋势显著，而其他季节减弱的趋势不明显；强降温综合强度春季增强趋势和其他季节减弱的趋势不显著。1961—2015年大西洋欧洲区极涡面积指数等因子减小以及热带北大西洋海温指数等因子增大是导致全区年冷空气次数减少的主要成因之一，而西藏高原指数等因子增强和热带印度洋海温偶极子指数等因子减弱是导致年冷空气强度减弱的主要原因之一。
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