Subjects: Geosciences >> Space Physics submitted time 2017-01-22
Abstract： We analyse the differences between the predicting transit time of coronal mass ejection (CME) calculated after Gopalswamy et al. [2001] and the observation data of interplanetary solar wind and ICME measured by ACE satellite at 1 AU for 52 CME events that cause geomagnetic storms (Dst<-200nT) and 10 CME events that cause significant geomagnetic storms (Dst<-200nT) from 1996 to 2007, and investigate the convection effects of the ambient solar wind speed on the CME transit time from the Sun to the Earth for these events. By taking the influence of the convection effects into consideration, for 52 CME events, the standard difference is reduced to 11.4 hours, comparing to that of 16.5 hours in the previous study, the histogram of errors in the predicted transit time after correction tends to a Gaussian distribution, and in which predicting error is less than 15 hours for 68% events; for 10 CME events which cause significant geomagnetic storms, after considering the influence of the convection effects, the standard difference is reduced from 10.6 hours to 6.5 hours, and in which predicting error is less than 5 hours for a set of 6 events in this study. The results indicate that the convection effects of ambient solar wind speed is an important factor that affects the transit time of CME, and can be used to improve the predicting transit time of the CME events.
Peer Review Status:
Awaiting Review
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