Validation of TOI-1221 b, a warm sub-Neptune exhibiting TTVs around a Sun-like star postprint

Abstract: We present a successful validation of the long-period ($91.68278^{+0.00032}_{-0.00041}$ days) transiting sub-Neptune planet TOI-1221 b (TIC 349095149.01) around a Sun-like (m$_{\rm V}$=10.5) star. We combine {\it TESS} light curve measurements and ground-based time-series photometry from PEST (0.3~m) and LCOGT (1.0~m) to analyze the transit light curves and rule out nearby stars as potential eclipsing binary contaminants. High-contrast imaging from SOAR and Gemini/Zorro rule out nearby stellar contaminants down to $\Delta$mag = 5 at separation $r = 0.1"$. Reconnaissance spectroscopy from CHIRON sets a planetary upper limit on the mass of the object (1.1 and 3.5 M$_{\rm Jup}$ at 1$\sigma$ and 3$\sigma$, respectively) and shows no sign of a spectroscopic binary companion. We fit a planetary radius $R_{\rm p}/R_\star=0.02679^{+0.00067}_{-0.00056}$ corresponding to $R_{\rm p} = 2.91^{+0.13}_{-0.12} R_{\oplus}$, placing it in the sub-Neptune regime. It's orbital semi-major axis of $a=0.404^{+0.026}_{-0.023}$ au predicts an insolation of $S = 5.57^{+0.75}_{-0.68}\ S_{\oplus}$, suggesting a moderate equilibrium temperature of $T_{\rm eq} =$ 400 K given a Neptune-like model. In analyzing 8 transits, we find significant evidence (> $5\sigma$) of sinusoidal transit timing variations with amplitude of $23.0^{+5.2}_{-4.1}$ minutes, and a super-period of $485^{+15}_{-19}$ days. We find a false positive probability from TRICERATOPS of FPP $ = 0.0014 \pm 0.0003$ as well as other qualitative and quantitative evidence to support the statistical validation of TOI-1221 b.