Fine-grained Solar Flare Forecasting Based on the Hybrid Convolutional Neural Networks postprint

Abstract: Improving the performance of solar flare forecasting is a hot topic in solar physics research field. Deep learning has been considered a promising approach to perform solar flare forecasting in recent years. We first used the Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) technique augmenting sample data to balance samples with different flare classes. We then proposed a hybrid convolutional neural network (CNN) model M for forecasting flare eruption in a solar cycle. Based on this model, we further investigated the effects of the rising and declining phases for flare forecasting. Two CNN models, i.e., Mrp and Mdp, were presented to forecast solar flare eruptions in the rising phase and declining phase of solar cycle 24, respectively. A series of testing results proved: 1) Sample balance is critical for the stability of the CNN model. The augmented data generated by GAN effectively improved the stability of the forecast model. 2) For C-class, M-class, and X-class flare forecasting using Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) line-of-sight (LOS) magnetograms, the means of true skill statistics (TSS) score of M are 0.646, 0.653 and 0.762, which improved by 20.1%, 22.3%, 38.0% compared with previous studies. 3) It is valuable to separately model the flare forecasts in the rising and declining phases of a solar cycle. Compared with model M, the means of TSS score for No-flare, C-class, M-class, X-class flare forecasting of the Mrp improved by 5.9%, 9.4%, 17.9% and 13.1%, and the Mdp improved by 1.5%, 2.6%, 11.5% and 12.2%.