基于水供给服务供需关系的伊犁河谷生态管理分区 postprint

Abstract: Water supply services sustain the survival and development of human society and are key to promoting the construction of China’s ecological civilization and the high-quality development of river basins. As a significant component of ecosystem services, it is central to ensuring the stability of watershed ecosystems and promoting the construction of ecological civilization in arid and semi-arid regions. This study focuses on the Ili River Valley in Xinjiang, analyzing the equilibrium characteristics of water supply and demand from 2005 to 2020. Using statistical yearbook and remote -sensing data, we apply models of water supply services, the water resources security index (FSI); and supply-demand matching analysis. The results indicate: (1) The FSI of the Ili River Valley fluctuates from “rising to falling,” and the supply-demand balance exhibits a three-stage evolution from “general deficit to general surplus to deficit persistence.” The spatial difference is significant: five counties and cities continue to deficit (i.e., Yining City, Yining County, Huocheng County, Cha County, and Xinyuan County); while three counties and one city (i.e., Nilek County, Tekes County, Zhaosu County, and the city of Horgos [2020]) maintain the surplus that appeared in 2010 during the surplus inflection point. (2) The match between water supply and demand presents three dominant types: “low supply/high demand,” “low supply/low demand,” and “high supply/low demand.” The spatial distribution of supply-demand matching types is differentiated by gradients in the east, middle, and west. Counties and cities with the same matching types display spatial agglomeration and industrial convergence. They are significantly driven by the regional economic structure, which manifests in the following ways: the livestock areas with superior ecological fundamentals maintain a high supply capacity, while the arable land -intensive agricultural areas continue to face high demand pressure. To support regional sustainable development, this study analyzes county-level water supply–demand matching in the Ili River Valley, considering socioeconomic and natural geographic factors. Based on the analysis, ecological management zones—conservation, control, and improvement—are defined to promote integrated development, ecosystem sustainability, and efficient water resource use.